The 5th major Zurich Axiom: On patterns
By John Sage Melbourne
Chaos is not hazardous until it starts to look orderly.
The world of money is one of chaos and the only patterns are the very same that exist in the froth of the ocean.
This axiom is perhaps the most important of all and is the essential to ending up being a better speculator that the most experienced and gifted experts.A lot of get abundant authors are offering the illusion of order as this is what offers. Any get abundant technique can work when you are lucky,and most of the stories being offered are not based on a sound,ongoing system that works and can be duplicated.
Minor Axiom V: Be careful the Historian’s Trap
Suppose event A was followed by event B in the past. Next time that event A comes around,there is definitely no factor to assume that event B is about to follow.The marketplace makes no forecasts of itself and offers no magic formula to forecast itself.
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Minor Axiom VI: Be careful the Chartist’s illusion
The incorrect facility of the chartist is that he knows that the marketplace can be predicted if he can simply figure out the pattern. The reality is the most basic of all descriptions: the marketplace has no patterns.A part of the chartist’s illusion is the trend line,constantly attracted retrospection,which claims to reveal order in what is essentially a random and disorganised time series of costs.Fund managers and sales people use this seeming order of trend,typically upward,as a so called forecast tool. This is simply the basis of delusion.
Minor Axiom VIIBeware the Correlation and Causality Misconceptions
Over and once again people see domino effect correlations in the share market and even generate income on their forecasts. The correlations that they see remain in fact not based upon anything other than a passing association or more most likely either delusion or luck.The human mind tries to find order in the chaos,but this order is not readily available in the real market location.Speculative strategyBe careful of seeing order where it does not exist. This does not mean that you can not find a good bet or an helpful investment,but keep in mind that the frustrating influence of random likelihood. (Gunther does not use the term “random likelihood” but rather talks of “luck”).You are constantly handling chaos and must be prepared to react when ever what ever is going to occur,takes place.
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